Sunday, 10 February 2008

ျမန္မာျပည္မွာ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးစနစ္ ဘာေၾကာင့္ မေအာင္ျမင္ရတာလဲ

ခင္မမမ်ိုး
ျမန္မာျပည္မွာ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးစနစ္ က်င့္သံုးေနတာ အႏွစ္ႏွစ္ဆယ္နီးေနျပီ။ အခုထိမေအာင္ျမင္ေသးဘူး။ စီးပြားေရးအေဆာက္အအံုတခုလံုးက ဖရိုဖရဲျဖစ္ေနတယ္။ ႏိုင္ငံအၾကီးအကဲဆိုသူေတြက ျမိဳ႕တကာလွည့္ျပီး ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္ရဲ့ ဦးတည္ခ်က္ (၁၂)ရပ္ နဲ႔ အညီတို႔၊ ေခတ္မွီဖြံ႕ျဖိဳးတိုးတက္ေသာ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္သစ္တို႔ ဆိုတဲ့ စကားလံုးေတြကို ခါး၀တ္ေဘာင္းဘီလို ထည္လဲ ေျပာေနတယ္။ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးစနစ္ပီျပင္စြာ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာေရးဆိုတဲ့ စကားလံုးကလဲ တီဗြီေတြမွာ၊ သီခ်င္းေခြေတြမွာ၊ သတင္းစာေတြမွာ၊ ဂ်ာနယ္ေတြမွာ ေန႔တိုင္းမွာကို ပါေနတယ္။ ႏွစ္ေပါင္းမ်ားစြာ ရွိေနျပီ။ ဘာလို႔ မေအာင္ျမင္ရလဲ။

အေျဖက ရွင္းပါတယ္။ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးစနစ္ဆိုတဲ့ သစ္ပင္တပင္ရွင္သန္ႏိုင္ေအာင္ စိုက္ပ်ိဳးႏိုင္မယ့္ အရည္အခ်င္း နအဖမွာ မရွိလို႔ပါပဲ။ သစ္ပင္တပင္ ရွင္သန္ဖို႔ဆိုတာက အဲဒီသစ္ပင္ ရွင္သန္ႏိုင္မယ့္ ေရခံေျမခံကို ရွာေဖြဖန္တီးျပီး မ်ိဳးေစ့ခ်ႏိုင္မွ၊ အပင္ရွင္သန္ေအာင္လဲ လိုအပ္တဲ့ ေျမၾသဇာထည့္ႏိုင္မွ၊ ေရေလာင္းေပါင္းသင္ႏိုင္မွ အပင္ရွင္သန္မွာပါ။ ဒီလိုပါပဲ။ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးစနစ္ ေအာင္ျမင္ဖို႔မွာလဲ preconditions၊ facilitations ေတြ ရွိရပါလိမ့္မယ္။

ပထမတခ်က္က ဘဏ္လုပ္ငန္း၊ အာမခံလုပ္ငန္းမ်ားအေပၚ ယံုၾကည္မွဳလိုအပ္ပါတယ္။ ျမန္မာျပည္က ဘဏ္ လုပ္ငန္းေတြရဲ႕ ေနာက္ကြယ္မွာ စစ္ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ေတြ၊ ဘိန္းရာဇာေတြက ၾကိဳးကိုင္လွဳပ္ရွားေနၾကတာပါ။ လုပ္ငန္း ကိစၥေတြအတြက္သာ မလႊဲမေရွာင္သာ အသံုးျပဳေနရေပမယ့္၊ စိတ္ခ်ယံုၾကည္စြာ သံုးေနၾကရတာေတာ့ မဟုတ္ပါ။ နည္းနည္းမ်ားလွဳပ္တယ္ၾကားတာနဲ႔ ဘဏ္ေတြေရွ႕မွာ ၀ိုင္းအံုျပီး ေငြလာထုတ္ၾကတဲ့ လူအုပ္ၾကီး ေတြက နည္းမွ မနည္းတာပဲ။ ဒါကို ၾကည့္တာနဲ႕တင္ ဒီအခ်က္မွာ အားနည္းေနတာ ေသခ်ာေနျပီ။

ေနာက္တခ်က္က တရားဥပေဒစိုးမိုးေရးပါ။ စီးပြားေရးဆိုင္ရာမွဳခင္းေတြျဖစ္လာတဲ့အခါ မွန္မွန္ကန္ကန္ စီရင္ဖို႔ ပါ။ ျမန္မာျပည္မွာက ေငြမ်ားေငြႏိုင္၊ လူၾကီးမ်ားမ်ားနဲ႔ သိသူႏိုင္ဆိုတဲ့ အေျခအေနမ်ိဳးေတြ ျဖစ္ေနတယ္။ တရား သူၾကီးေတြကလဲ လာဘ္စားၾကတယ္။ စစ္ဗိုလ္ေတြကလဲ ယူနီေဖာင္း၀တ္အာဏာကို အငွားလိုက္ၾကေသးတယ္။ စီးပြားေရးစာခ်ဳပ္ေတြခ်ဳပ္ရင္ တဘက္လူကို ၾကိဳေခ်ာက္ထားဖို႔ ယူနီေဖာင္း၀တ္ေတြကို ခဏငွားျပီး ေဘးမွာ လိုက္ထိုင္ခိုင္းတာမ်ိဳးေတြေပါ့။

ေနာက္တခ်က္က monopolistic control ဆိုတဲ့ တဦးတည္းကေန ေစ်းကြက္ကို ခ်ဳပ္ကိုင္ထားတာ မဟုတ္ပဲ ေစ်းကြက္အတြင္းမွာ အျပိဳင္အဆိုင္ေတြ ျဖစ္ေနဖို႔ လိုပါတယ္။ ျမန္မာျပည္မွာက ေစ်းကြက္ေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားကို ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ေတြရဲ႕ အမည္ခံသူေဌးေတြရယ္၊ ဦးပိုင္ရယ္၊ ျငိမ္းအဖြဲ႕ေတြရယ္က လက္၀ါးၾကီးအုပ္ထားၾကတယ္။ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရး ဆိုတာက competitiveness အေပၚမွာ အေျခခံပါတယ္။ ဒီလို လက္၀ါးၾကီးအုပ္လိုက္တာနဲ႔ စနစ္ပ်က္တာပါပဲ။ ဘယ္လိုမွ မေအာင္ျမင္ႏိုင္ပါဘူး။

ေနာက္တခ်က္ကေတာ့ သတင္းအခ်က္အလက္နဲ႔ ဆိုင္ပါတယ္။ စီးပြားေရးသတင္းအခ်က္အလက္ေတြကို ကန္႔သတ္မွဳကင္းစြာ၊ ဘက္လိုက္မွဳကင္းစြာ ရရွိႏိုင္မွဳပါ။ ျမန္မာျပည္မွာက ဒီလိုရိိုးသားမွဳေတြ မရွိဘူး။ အရပ္စကားနဲ႔ဆိုရရင္ေတာ့ ဂြင္စီးပြားေရးေတြ ျဖစ္ေနတယ္။ ဂြင္၀င္မွ၊ ဂြင္ရွိမွ၊ ခုတ္ႏိုင္မွ၊ လွီးႏိုင္မွ ဆိုတာမ်ိဳးေတြ ျဖစ္ေနတယ္။ အဲဒီဂြင္ဆိုတာကဘာလဲ။ နအဖဘက္လူေတြနဲ႔ ရင္းႏွီးပတ္သက္မွဳကို ေျပာတာပါ။ ဒါေတြ မရွိပဲ ဘယ္လိုမွ စီးပြားေရးလုပ္လို႔ မရပါဘူး။

ေနာက္တခ်က္ကေတာ့ အုပ္ခ်ဳပ္သူအစိုးရရဲ႕ ရိုးသားမွဳပါ။ ဒီအခ်က္က အေရးၾကီးဆံုးျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒီမိုက ေရစီႏိုင္ငံတခုမွာ စီးပြားေရးသမားတေယာက္ ပါတီကို္ donate လုပ္တဲ့ စတာလင္ေပါင္ (၇၅၀) တန္ ခ်က္ လက္မွတ္ကို declare မလုပ္မိလို႕ ၀န္ၾကီးတေယာက္ ရာထူးက ႏွဳတ္ထြက္ေပးရပါတယ္။ ကဲ- ျမန္မာျပည္မွာ ဒီလို ကိုယ္က်ိဳးရွာမွဳအတြက္သာ ရာထူးက ထြက္ရမယ္ဆိုရင္ အစိုးရတဖြဲ႕လံုးတေယာက္ေတာင္ က်န္ပါ ေတာ့ မလား။

ေနာက္တခ်က္က ေငြေၾကးေစ်းႏွဳန္းတည္ျငိမ္မွဳပါ။ ျမန္မာျပည္မွာက အစိုးရေစ်းေတာင္ တရား၀င္ ႏွစ္မ်ိဳးျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ ေငြေၾကးေဖာင္းပြႏွဳန္းကလဲ အရမ္းကို ျမင့္ေနပါတယ္။ က်ပ္ေငြကို စိတ္မခ်လို႔ တရုတ္ နယ္စပ္ကုန္သြယ္ေရးေတြမွာ တရုတ္ေငြေၾကးနဲ႔ပဲ စကားေျပာၾကပါေတာ့တယ္။ (၁၉၉၉)တ၀ိုက္က တည္း က မူဆယ္၊ မႏၱေလးက ကုန္သည္ေတြ တရုတ္ပိုက္ဆံပဲ သံုးေနၾကပါေတာ့တယ္။ ျမန္မာျပည္ေငြေၾကးက အဲဒီ ေလာက္ကို အေျခအေနဆိုးပါတယ္။ ႏိုင္ငံတကာ ကုန္သြယ္မွဳအတြက္ စိတ္မခ်ရတဲ့ ေငြေၾကးစနစ္ရွိေနတဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံ တႏိုင္ငံရဲ့ စီးပြားေရးဟာ ဘယ္လိုေအာင္ျမင္ပါေတာ့မလဲ။

ဒီအခ်က္ေတြကို ေလ့လာၾကည့္မယ္ဆိုရင္ ေရႊသမင္ ဘယ္ကထြက္၊ မင္းၾကီးတာကထြက္ ဆိုသလိုပဲ ျမန္မာျပည္မွာ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးမေအာင္ျမင္တာ၊ ျမန္မာ့စီးပြားေရး ျခြတ္ခ်ံဳက်ေနရတာေတြဟာ ရွိသင့္တဲ့ preconditions ေတြကို နအဖက မဖန္တီးေပးႏိုင္လို႔၊ မွန္မွန္ကန္ကန္ အုပ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဳ မလုပ္ႏိုင္လို႕ဆိုတာ ထင္ရွားေနပါတယ္။ ဒါကို အေမရိကန္က စီးပြားေရး ပိတ္ဆို႔လို႔ဆိုျပီး၊ ေညာင္ဦးကမ္းပါးျပိဳတာကို စမာနဂိုလ္က ႏြားမေပါင္က်ိဳးတဲ့ ဇာတ္ခင္းေနၾကရင္ေတာ့ ေစ်းကြက္စီးပြားေရးတင္မေအာင္ျမင္တာမဟုတ္ပဲ၊ ျမန္မာ့စီးပြားေရးအေဆာက္အအံုၾကီးပါျပိဳလဲျပီး၊ တရုတ္လက္ေအာက္ခံ က်ြန္ဘ၀ကို မသိမသာ ေရာက္သြားေတာ့မွာ အေသအခ်ာပဲ။

ခင္မမမ်ိဳး (၁၀၊၂၊၂၀၀၈)

at 21:56

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2 comments :

Burmakin said...

There are fallacious concepts in this article. Please review these statements.

(1)As the government has no capacity to do the competitive market, the market economy is successful.

Correct logic: The State should have the minimal intervention in the market economy(Conservative market theory).The efficiency of a market is more operational when the State keeps away from it rather than the State tries to do something for it.

(2)Bribery makes the market economy difficult to operate.

Correct logic: Bribery can promote the economics by greasing (smoothing) the bureaucratic transactions.Even in East Asia who are performing well for the market economy have substantial corruption.Good theories for further learning can be the "rent collection behavior" and some pertinent game theories

(3)Monopolistic control of the market by the military and military relatives make the market economy a complete moribund

Correct logic: There are two economic models still debating in the world since long time ago. The first one is the East Asian model like Singapore and China who try to legitimize the autocratic control of the market.(Learn Lee thesis please)In this East Asian model, the State will decide first who will control the market and they think when the first tier firms are performing well,the second,third tiers will follow.

Another model is the capability model that India and Western systems practice.They don't believe the autocratic control is related to the efficiency of the market and they focus on promoting the capability of the people to be competitive in the market.Still monopolies stately exist in shares of their markets. e.g pharmaceuticals. Still there are many disparities.

(4)Inflation makes the market economy worse

Correct logic: Inflation is an index for improvement in the rate of employment.It also makes the investors an incentive to add more investments. The debtors also need to pay back less because of inflation and more inclination to get a loan for new investments.( A good book for learning about inflation is "Stability and Growth" of Joseph Stiglitz)

Concluding remark:

The main problem of the delay in economic development(you can't say economic failure here)is because there is minimal foreign investment that is the most important booster for progressing the country.For minimizing the disparity, the government has to do the fair distributive resource allocation from the tax revenues.Also he needs to invest in health and education for producing vigorous human resources.The main economic problems of Burma arise because of "wrong policy choices" of the government rather than the preconditions referred.

Burmakin
http://www.burmakin.blogspot.com/

11 February 2008 at 01:04
Unknown said...

These are my arguments for Burmakin’s statements.

(1)As the government has no capacity to do the competitive market, the market economy is successful.

Burmakin: The State should have the minimal intervention in the market economy(Conservative market theory).The efficiency of a market is more operational when the State keeps away from it rather than the State tries to do something for it.

Khin Ma Ma Myo: For this point, I did not mention the government has no capacity to do the competitive market. The point I mentioned was about the market-facilitating legal and economic practices in Burma. You are right. Conservative market theory claimed that the State should have the minimal intervention in the market economy. However, it did not claim that the State should not practice appropriate property rights, commercial laws and courts, safety nets and instruments for stabilizing monetary and fiscal policies. For efficient market economies, these practices are important to facilitate the market and SPDC has no capacity to establish these legal and economic practices. Clearly, I did not expect the State to have intervention in the market economy, but I expected to have suitable facilitations.

(2)Bribery makes the market economy difficult to operate.

Burmakin: Bribery can promote the economics by greasing (smoothing) the bureaucratic transactions. Even in East Asia who are performing well for the market economy have substantial corruption. Good theories for further learning can be the "rent collection behavior" and some pertinent game theories.

Khin Ma Ma Myo: I did not mention that the countries must not have substantial corruption. I agreed the point that even East Asian countries have a substantial level of corruption. However, the control of corruption is one of the governance matters for developing a market economy. According to the recent World Bank Research, the control of corruption grade for Burma is -1.68 and for East Asian countries (as u mentioned) Taiwan, South Korea, Japan are 0.53, 0.31 and 1.31. Of course, they have corruption but not worse like Burma. For the countries with successful market economies, no grades are with minus grade.

Moreover, the fact you mentioned about the relationship between bribery and bureaucratic transactions have two conflicting results and you pointed only one dimension. According to the empirical results, the failure of bureaucrat 1 to internalize the bribe externality under decentralization, in effect colluding with the investor to hold back price against the interests of bureaucrat 2, is beneficial to the domestic economy. At the same time, the failure of each bureaucrat to internalize the price externality under decentralization has a positive effect on price, and this is damaging to the domestic economy. So the net result of these two conflicting effects is that either centralization or decentralization may yield the higher domestic welfare. So it cannot be totally assumed that bribery can promote the economies.
Regarding to the rent behavior, if you want to argue that government employee may have this behavior that lead to competition and innovation, please look at the following excerpt related to Nepalese society by development economist.

“Corruption is a rule in government offices and every government employee is rent seeker in Nepal. Lack of transparency in workings of the government, absence of decentralization of the power, poor laws combined with corrupt legal system and so on have been helping the increasing returns of rent seeking technologies attracting more and more people to this sector in the country. This resulted in more competition in entering into the sector on the one hand and in innovation of new technologies of rent seeking on the other. This is very harmful to the growth of economy leading to failed nation. A rough guess of government revenue loss due to the operation of all types of corruption and malpractice accounted for more than 50 percent of GDP ever year in the country. Besides, the loss in growth due to disincentive generated by the rent seeker government to the innovating activities in the country is alarming.”

Even for the China economy, the severe and widespread nature of corruption in China is becoming a major source of social discontent and poses a threat to the legitimacy of the country's leaders, according to experts at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

So it is obvious that bribery can have a negative impact for economic growth and efficient operations of the market economy.

(3)Monopolistic control of the market by the military and military relatives make the market economy a complete moribund

Burmakin: There are two economic models still debating in the world since long time ago. The first one is the East Asian model like Singapore and China who try to legitimize the autocratic control of the market.(Learn Lee thesis please)In this East Asian model, the State will decide first who will control the market and they think when the first tier firms are performing well, the second,third tiers will follow.

Another model is the capability model that India and Western systems practice. They don't believe the autocratic control is related to the efficiency of the market and they focus on promoting the capability of the people to be competitive in the market. Still monopolies stately exist in shares of their markets. e.g pharmaceuticals. Still there are many disparities.

Khin Ma Ma Myo: They are a lot of economic models still debating in the world related to welfare, environment, trade and so on, not only these two models.

Regarding to East Asian Development model, a large part of debates center on the role of the state on economic development of East Asia. Despite of high growth rates, there were institutional and organizational failures even leading to the economic crises in 1997. Post crises- structural transformations of these countries were more market-oriented than autocratic controls. Even for China, the gradual change towards new market forms of exchange, the creation of economic self-interest and the abolishment of planned economy have occurred based on the acceptance of private property rights and emergence of market exchange outside state control.

For capability model, the focus is on competitive market. In fact, the essence of market economy is competitiveness, not autocratic control. Although you claimed that the efficiency of market is related to autocratic control, market efficiency does not merely mean high economic growth rates.

Furthermore, the monopolistic control of market by military and military relatives in Burma cannot be assumed that they are engaging in the East Asian model as you mentioned. East Asian model is a development model that promotes economic growth of a country, not only for first tier’s interests. According to theory, if first tiers firms are performing well, second tiers will follow as you mentioned. Can you identify the second tier firms in Burma?



(4)Inflation makes the market economy worse

Burmakin: Inflation is an index for improvement in the rate of employment. It also makes the investors an incentive to add more investments. The debtors also need to pay back less because of inflation and more inclination to get a loan for new investments.( A good book for learning about inflation is "Stability and Growth" of Joseph Stiglitz)

Khin Ma Ma Myo: Actually, the rate of inflation measures the annual percentage increase in prices. Inflation tends to cause uncertainty among the business community. If it is difficult for firms to predict their costs and revenues, they will be discouraged from investing and it will reduce economic growth rate. Inflation also worsens the balance of payments. If one country suffers high inflation, its exports will become less competitive in the world markets. Imports will become cheaper than home-produced goods and balance of payments will be deteriorated.

Moreover, if inflation develops into hyperinflation, firms raise prices in attempt to cover rocketing costs, workers demand huge pay increases to cover high costs of living and prices and wages chase each other in an inflationary-spiral. As a result, the whole market economy will be undermined.

Concluding remark:

Burmakin: The main problem of the delay in economic development(you can't say economic failure here)is because there is minimal foreign investment that is the most important booster for progressing the country. For minimizing the disparity, the government has to do the fair distributive resource allocation from the tax revenues. Also he needs to invest in health and education for producing vigorous human resources. The main economic problems of Burma arise because of "wrong policy choices" of the government rather than the preconditions referred.

Khin Ma Ma Myo: Burma has been regarded as a failed state due to its economic failures and poor development indicators. In Burma, markets are permeated by imperfections of operations and structure, commodity and factor markets are organized badly, there are distortions of prices, there is a failure of the market to price facts of production that leads to grass disparities. All these symptoms represent the definition of market failures.

I agree the role of Foreign Direct Investment as an important booster for the progress the country. However, it depends on the condition of the host country government’s policy objectives. If the government is only interested in arms racing rather than economic development, the benefits of FDI will definitely increase the military balances but not the economy.

For minimizing disparities, fair redistributive strategies must be adopted. The size distribution at the upper levels must be reduced through progressive income and wealth taxes and the size distribution at the lower levels must be increased through direct transfer payments and public provision of goods and services. Does the SPDC have a suitable tax system for this?

For human capital investment, health and education sectors must be emphasized as you mentioned.

However, the major economic problems arise in Burma not only from the wrong policy choices but also from lack of institutional and structural requirements, poor economic and legal practices and unbalanced allocations of the national income. In fact, “wrong people for the wrong place” is the major problem. The duty of the army is to protect the country. Not for the role of the government.

Khin Ma Ma Myo

12 February 2008 at 08:59

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