We cordially invite you to participate in Ko Moethee’s blog
" Dawn Political Discussion"
Topic: The Probability of having Genuine Dialogue
It doesn’t whether you are a pessimist or an optimist.
We welcome your views and comments.
You can submit your questions either in English or Burmese.
Moderator: Win Moe , Former Joint General Secretary (1)
ABFSU, working along with Moethee Zun, Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi during 1988.
16 comments :
Where's "Dawn Political Discussion " Section or room?
how to?
ဒီမွာပဲ ေဆြးေႏြးရမွာ လား ေဆြးေႏြးျပီဗ်ိဳ႕ ။ တုိတိုနဲ႔ လုိရင္းေဆြးေႏြးရရင္ေတာ႔။ ဒီအေျခအေနဟာ နအဖနဲ႔ ေဒၚစု ေဆြးေႏြးပြဲ အေျခအေနက ျဖစ္နိုင္သလား၊ မျဖစ္နုိင္ဘူးလားဆုိရာမွာ ျဖစ္လည္းျဖစ္နုိင္တယ္။ ျဖစ္လည္းမျဖစ္နုိင္ဘူးလုိ႔ ဆုိရအံုမယ္႔ အေျခအေနပဲ ရွိပါေသးတယ္။ ဘာလုိ႔ လည္းဆုိေတာ႔ လက္ရွိအေျခအေနဟာ နအဖ ရဲ႕ ေရွ႕ တုိးသာ၊ေနာက္ဆုတ္သာ လုပ္ထားတဲ႔ ပရိရယ္အတြင္းမွာ ပဲ ရွိေနေသးလုိ႔ ပါ။ နအဖ ရဲ႕ လက္ရွိေျဖရင္းေနရတဲ႔ အေရးၾကီးျပႆနာက ၂ ခုပဲ ရွိတယ္။
၁။ နုိင္ငံတကာဖိအားေလွ်ာ႔ ေရး
၂။ ျပီးခဲ႔ တဲ႔ သူတုိ႔ ရက္စက္မွဳ႕ ေတြအေပၚ ဖံုကြယ္လွည္႔ စားျပီး ျပည္သူကို ေခ်ြးသိပ္၊ ေသြးေအးေအာင္လုပ္ေရး။
ဒီ ၂ ခ်က္ေပၚမွာ သူတုိ႔ က ေျခခံထားတယ္ ။ ဒါေၾကာင္႔ ဒီလုိ႔ နဲ႔ ဒီျပႆနာနွစ္ခုကုိ အခ်ိန္ကာလဆြဲ ျခင္းအားျဖစ္ေသာ္လည္းေကာင္း၊ ေနာက္အာရုံုတစ္ခု ေျပာင္းလဲျခင္းျဖင္႔ ေသာ္လည္းေကာင္း လွည္႔စားျပီး သူတုိ႔ ေျဖရွင္းလုိက္နုိင္ရင္..ေဆြးေႏြးပြဲ ဆုိတာ ေလထဲမွာ ပဲ ေပ်ာက္သြားနုိင္ေသးတဲ႔ အေျခအေနပါ။
ဟုတ္ျပီ။ ဒါျဖင္႔ရင္ ဘယ္လုိျဖစ္နုိင္ေသးလဲ? သူတုိ႔ ဒီျပႆနာ ၂ ရပ္ကုိ ေျဖရွင္းဘုိ႔ ၊ ေလွ်ာက္ခ်င္သည္ျဖစ္ေစ၊ မေလွ်ာက္ခ်င္သည္ျဖစ္ေစ၊ ေဆြေႏြးပြဲ လမ္းကုိ သြားပါမည္ဆုိတဲ႔ လမ္းစေလးေတာ႔ ခင္းထားေရာင္ျပထားပါတယ္။ ဒီေဆြးေႏြးပြဲ လမ္းကုိ သူတုိ႔ မေလွ်ာက္ေလွ်ာက္ေအာင္ က်ဳံသြင္းဖိအားေပးဘုိ႔ က ျပည္တြင္းျပည္ပ ဖိအားႏွစ္မ်ိဳးလံုးဆက္ေပးနုိင္ပါမွ သူတို႔ ေလွ်ာက္ပါလိမ္႔မယ္။ ျပည္ပဖိအားဆုိတာက လည္း ျပည္တြင္း ဖိအားမရွိရင္ဘာမလုပ္မရပါ။ ဒါေၾကာင္႔ ျပည္တြင္းဖိအားေပးမွဳ႔ ဆက္လက္ရွင္သန္၊ အရွိန္ျမင္႔ ေနနိုင္ပါမ ဒီလမ္းကို သူတုိ႔ ေရြးခ်ယ္ ေလွ်ာက္လိမ္႔မယ္ လုိ႔ ျမင္ပါတယ္။
ေက်းဇူးတင္ပါတယ္
It is a program to reformulate present political landscape what we call it " Dawn"
political discussion section or room whatever you can name. But
you can send email to ko win moe email account or leave your discussion in this comment box.
Hope you get my point!
best
Ko Win Moe
sayasaw@gmail.com
ခင္ဗ်ား စာေတြ ဖတ္လို ့မရပါ၊ ခင္ဗ်ားသေဘာထားေတြကို ၀င္းဘာမိစ္ ဒါမွမဟုတ္ ေဇာ္ဂ်ီ ၁ နဲ ့ေရးျပီး ပို ့ေပးဖို ့ေမတာရပ္ခံပါတယ္၊၊ က်ေနာ္ အီးေမးကို ပို ့ေပးပါ၊ ဓါတ္ပံု ပါျဖစ္နိင္ရင္ ပို ့ေပးပါ၊
ေဖၚ ျပျခင္လို ့ပါ၊ မပို ့ျခင္လည္း ရပါတယ္ ၊၊
၀င္းမိုး
မိုဒေရတာ
You implied that SPDC is just entering this phase just to reduce international pressure and buying time to reduce public outrage of their recent voilent supressions. In brief, SPDC has the intension of conducting "dialogue" with the opposition for the sake of "dialogue". That's the possibility. However, there are some encouraging signs too. For example, Daw Suu would not release the statement that she will cooperate with SPDC for the sake of the country, unless SPDC made some concessions on conditions that she demanded. And they did. The SPDC allowed her to meet with her NLD executives ( mysteriously missing is V Chair U Tin Oo though). I believe Daw Suu would negotiate some terms ( conditions and agenda) with Mr. Aung Kyi in order to have a credible dialogue. I doubt that SPDC would concede to all conditions ( release of political prisoners, resumption of political activities by political party members, etc...) right away. We have to wait and see. If the SPDC meets those required conditions, that's a good sign. I also think, they ( SPDC and NLD leaders) are working on the agenda. This is a crucial phase. Agenda is key to a sucessful dialogue. If SPDC is going to enter into dialogue just for the sake of dialogue, then the deal collapses. Thus, agenda of the dialogue must include/imply "political transition- from military dictatorship to democracy". Without which, Daw Suu will back off from the deal.
To Ko Win Moe
What is objective of this discussion. As you come on action blog as Moe Thee Zun hopefully some action will follow this discussion.
In my view success of dialogue between Daw Suu and Na AhPha is depend on us, we can make changes.
No body can go to negotiation table with empty hand. It is negotiation not begging. Than shwe show his weak point in his unprepare precondition for dialogue demand in first meeting with Gambari. 4 demands of Than Shwe are our road map to democracy. we need more Confrontation and sanction to stregnthen voice of Daw Suu position on table.
wdywd
To Ko Maung,
I agree with you 100%. You can't enter into a dialogue with empty hands (pls read without tangible threats of actions that will hurt SPDC's elites and their immediate families and close associates). Hence, international actions must be in the pipeline, ready to implement once SPDC shows its insincerity. I also believe that the "targeted sanctions" are working. That's why they gave in to start the dialogue. This time around international denunciations followed suit with actions. There is a strong possibility that the international actions hit their weak points, that is, their immediate families, sons, daughters and wives of the generals. It's a karma. They have been harassing oppositions' immediate families for years. I suspect they don't want to have their kids "Galone U Saw's sons/daughters syndrome". Few top generals are old and half way through to their graveyards. They don't want their kids to inherit a stigma. Maybe. Just my guessing. However, the targeted sanctions are working. otherwise, they would not initiate the "talks". But we must not let our guard down. We must keep ratcheting up the pressure on them. We and our international allies must be well-prepared. Past experiences have shown us that we cannot trust these generals.
The crucial is to allow mediator ( UN and some country from Regional ) to go along with time frame. Time is really important as the country is fragile in every aspect.
Pressure is one more factor to speed up the dialogue and equally negotiation between them. Is western economic sanction really effective to change the attitude of Gen than shwe and his ally? What about Tribunal Court? International Court of Justice? If they distract the path of dialogue, that would be only answer, i think.
Which symbolic organization, person communicate with ethnic group? that issue is International concern especially regional countries.
Indeed. Dialogue without a time frame is meaningless. SPDC is notorious for dragging their feet. Even their own path to democracy is dragging for 19 years and counting. That is why, both Daw Suu ( in her statement ) and Mr. Gambari ( his retort to Kyaw Sann) explicitly stated dialogue/transition to democracy should be conducted within a reasonable time frame.
Bringing these criminal generals to ICC/UN Tribunal (cooperation with our international allies) should be in the pipeline for immediate actions. Daw Suu could use this triumph card as an important bargaining chip.
What do you think about the UNPO and PNO statements on the front page of today SPDC's media? Is it a cunning maneuver by SPDC? Nevertheless, it reemphasizes the fact that the essence of Democracy- freedom of press- is still totally missing in Burma. How can Daw Suu and NLD respond to those statements?
rom Civil Society Myanmar (Burma) civilsocietymyanmar@gmail.com
to sayasaw@gmail.com,
date Nov 14, 2007 9:39 AM
subject my comment
mailed-by gmail.com
hide details 9:39 AM (58 minutes ago)
It is an interesting topic to discuss but until now, I don't get the signal that the regime will sit at the negotiation table. All the move prove that they want to play hawk till they have to step down although they don't have bargaining power like before. Let's forget about the arrest of Ma Su Su Nway or U Gambira. They are giving pressure to the ceasefire groups and ethnic groups inside to issue nonsense responses of the statement of Daw Suu. In my opinion, current move is just a strategy to get back the status quo before the crackdown. Whatever it is, we have our own interests too. This is the time for us to change the scenerio. How? Can we get the supports from fence sitters in the regime? We need to find ways to change the game.
watchdog
To Civil Society Myanmar (Burma),
That’s a good suggestion. Nonetheless, this regime is unlike Ne Win’s regime. Than Shwe makes sure every general and his family benefit from this military (institution) rule, unlike Ne Win. For the first time in Burmese military rule history, PM Soe Win death was granted state funeral status. Than Shwe is expecting one for himself. Ne Win was buried in anonymity. Majority of the SPDC’s generals are happy with status quo. Thus, a fence sitter or a general, who is disgusted with the current Burma’s miserable situation, is hard to identify like minded general to organize a coup.
However, that doesn’t mean this approach is impossible. We should create an atmosphere of discontent among the generals. Few top generals, Than Shwe, Maung Aye, Maung Bo and some are way passed their retirement age of 65. Than Shwe have been holding the post of Chief of Staff of Armed Forces for nearly two decades since Saw Maung’s death and he plans to take the title with him to his graveyard if he has his way. They should and must take off their uniforms. We should spread this message, employing the current successful technique (Spray Campaign) and other creative means throughout major cities across Burma. At least, we should give it a try.
In the future, when Burma gets Democracy, we should enshrine these principles “all government personnel must retire at age 65” and “ the chief of staff of Armed Forces shall NOT serve more than one term of 4/5 years”. Only by that way, we can prevent the reoccurring of terrible military dictatorship in Burma.
I totally agree with your point that this regime has changed much. But not positively...We can blame on "so-called" open market economy which can allow different levels of the military officials to enjoy incentives. Ne Win's regime and Than Shwe's are different in many ways. Ne Win never allowed his own people to become famous or rich. Ne Win could not tolerate any type of popularity of his own men. I wanted to accuse Ne Win as a problem maker of giving power to the current regime. As we showed dissents to him in 1988, he plotted and planned to revenge the people by destroying education system and strengthening the military. In my opinion, he had to pay back for this.
I don't think that Than Shwe is better. He is lucky in many ways because this is the position he could not dream during BSPP era. So are many generals. But the culture of the existing military generals is a bit strange. Their loyalty is not to Than Shwe but to economic incentives. At the same time, an interesting actor is playing an important role. Tay Za is not a soldier. Most of the generals are not as rich as Tay Za. In the country, we said that "Kyee, Yay, Lay, Tay". Many generals cannot be happy with his richness definitely. He shouldn't be the one who is living luxuriously on Innya Road like a King with the best cars. We heard that even Mg Aye was not happy with Tay Za although he is the first one who was close to him.
At the same time, Image of the military is totally destroyed. I still think positively that many military officials do not like the current situation of Tamataw and social pressure to them is very harsh now. This is what I want to say that we can buy in the interests of many military officials. We also need to understand the military as an institution. They cannot betray their leaders. It is the core principle. For me personally, I cannot welcome any coup of the military nowadays. Another general is not a political solution. We only want to welcome the real soldiers who will hand over power to the democratic leaders.
Genuine dialogue is the very first step for our country's political change. The best thing Daw Suu or opposition group can do for them is to give safe exit to go back to their barracks. But I don't like the idea of power sharing between the military and the pro-democracy groups. Currently, Gambari and UN proposed the agenda of poverty alleviation. The irony is that they forget to analyse the root cause of the problem. Who caused this poverty in the country? Economic mismanagement of this regime...Even if they don't do anything, there can be natural growth. This regime does not have political will to They have their work to protect the country. Ruling the country is none of their business at all. Let's focus on the work we can manage for our country's development!
If we go extreme, we have to finish the popularity of the military in many ways not to repeat the history. How? We need to finsih ethnic conflicts by giving back their own rights for self determination and local autonomy (whatever we want to call _ federalism or decentralization). It is fair enough for our country case. Then another possible option is all the citizens (men) reach to the age of 18 are compulsory to join the military.
I like your ideas of letting old people go and not allowing people to take the position more than four or five years. We can include all of these principles in constitution.
All the steps the regime are making are not sincere nor strategic. They are creating their own downfalls. The day that even their master, China cannot find way to help them is coming soon. We all need to be careful not to formulate a strategy to prolong the rule of the dying regime!!! Giving medicine to prolong the dying tiger is not a strategy at all. Let them die... Poverty Alleviation agenda is one of the antidotes in my opinion...
က်ြန္မျမင္မိတဲ့ အခ်က္ေတြကေတာ့
(၁) လက္ရွိစီးပြားေရးပိတ္ဆို႔မွဳေတြဟာ နအဖကို တစတစ ထိေနျပီ။ ဒီအတြက္ သူတို႕ဘက္က တခုခု လုပ္ဖို႔လိုမွာ ျဖစ္တဲ့အတြက္ ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးေရးလမ္းေပၚတက္မွာပဲ။ ဒါဟာလဲ က်ြန္မတို႔ အတိုက္အခံေတြဘက္က လိုခ်င္တဲ့ အခ်က္ပဲ။ ဖိအားမေပးပဲ၊ အင္အားခ်ိန္ခြင္လွ်ာမညွိပဲ ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးပြဲလမ္းေပၚကို ေရာက္လာမွာမဟုတ္ဘူး။
(၂)ဒါေပမယ့္ တခုသတိထားရမွာက အရွံဳးထဲကေနေတာင္ အျမတ္ရေအာင္ ထုတ္ျပီး အရွံဳးအႏိုင္ကို တပတ္လွည့္ပစ္တတ္ေလ့ရွိတဲ့ နအဖအက်င့္ပဲ။ နအဖဟာ ေတြ႕ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးပြဲကို အျမတ္မထုတ္သြားႏိုင္ဖို႔ အေရးၾကီးတယ္။
(၃) နအဖဟာ ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးပြဲကို ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္နဲ႔၊ အင္အယ္ဒီနဲ႔ တိုင္းရင္းသားမ်ားနဲ႔ ေတြ႔ဆံုပြဲ ဆိုတာထက္ အမ်ိဳးသားျပန္လည္သင့္ျမတ္ေရးေတြ႔ဆံုပြဲဆိုျပီး၊ ျငိမ္းအဖြဲ႔ေတြကိုအဓိကထား ပြဲထုတ္လာႏိုင္တယ္။ ဒီပြဲမွာ ဖယ္ဒရယ္မူကိစၥကို ၾကိဳတင္ညွိႏွိဳင္းပယ္ဖ်က္ျပီး၊ လက္ရွိေညာင္ႏွစ္ပင္ညီလာခံမွာ ခ်ထားတဲ့ အခ်က္ေတြကိုပဲ တိုင္းရင္းသားေတြကို တင္ျပေဆြးေႏြးေစတာေတြ လုပ္လာႏိုင္တယ္။ ဒီမိုကေရစီေရးကိုလဲ နအဖအေကာင္အထည္ေဖာ္ေနတဲ့ ဒီမိုကေရစီလမ္းေၾကာင္းဆိုတာၾကီးကိုပင္ ထည့္သြင္းေျပာလာႏိုင္တယ္။ ျငိမ္းအဖြဲ႔ေတြအားလံုးနဲ႔ အယ္အယ္ဒီတခုတည္းနဲ႔ဆိုရင္ အရည္အတြက္အရ အင္အယ္ဒီဘက္မွာ အားနည္းေနျပီ။ ဒါကို သတိထားရမယ္။
(၄) ဒီလိုမျဖစ္ေအာင္ က်ြန္မတို႕ ဘယ္လိုကာကြယ္ႏိုင္မလဲ။ ေတာင္းဆိုႏိုင္မလဲ။ က်ြန္မတို႔ ၀ိုင္း၀န္းစဥ္းစားၾကည့္ရေအာင္။
(၅) ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးေရးကို ႏိုင္ငံတကာက ေစာင့္ၾကည့္မွဳနဲ႔ဆိုတာကို နအဖလက္ခံမလား။ ဒီအခ်က္က အေရးၾကီးတယ္။ အခုေနာက္ဆံုးတေခါက္ ဂမ္ဘာရီခရီးစဥ္ကို ၾကည့္ရင္ နအဖဟာ ႏိုင္ငံတကာပါ၀င္ပတ္သက္မွဳကို ေနရာမေပးေတာ့တာ သိသာေနတယ္။ ျပည္တြင္းတံခါးပိတ္အစည္းအေ၀းဆိုတာမ်ိဳးလုပ္လာႏိုင္တယ္။
(၆) အခုေနာက္ပိုင္း အင္အယ္ဒီကို နည္းနည္းေနရာေပးလာတယ္။ အင္အယ္ဒီအခန္းက႑ကို နည္းနည္းျမွင့္ရင္ျမွင့္မယ္။ အေကာင္းဘက္ကျမင္ႏိုင္သလို အဆိုးဘက္ကၾကည့္ရင္လဲ ရိုက္ခ်ဖို႔ စင္ေပၚတင္တာမ်ိဳးျဖစ္လာႏိုင္တာကို ထည့္စဥ္းစားသင့္တယ္။ ေနာက္တခ်က္က အင္အယ္ဒီနဲ႔ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ကို ဘယ္ေနရာထားျပီး ေဆြးေႏြးမွာလဲ။ ၉၀ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲအႏိုင္ရပါတီအေနနဲ႔လား။ အတိုက္အခံပါတီအေနနဲ႔လား။ ဒီကိစၥ အစကတည္းက ရွင္းဖို႔လိုမယ္။
(၇) ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးပြဲစရင္ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ဆိုထားသလို timebound အေရးၾကီးတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္တႏွစ္လား၊ ႏွစ္ႏွစ္လား။ နအဖအၾကံအတိုင္းဆိုရင္ ၂၀၀၉ခုႏွစ္မွာ ၾကံ့ဖြတ္အားကုိးနဲ႔ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲလုပ္မယ္။ ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးတာနဲ႕ ဒီ လမ္းျပေျမပံုၾကီးကို ရပ္ထားမွာလား။ ဆက္သြားေနမွာလား။ ရပ္ထားျပီး ေတြ႕ဆံုမွ အဓိပၸာယ္ရွိမယ္။
(၈) ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးပြဲကိုပဲ ထိုင္ေစာင့္ေနလို႔ေတာ့ ရမယ္မထင္ပါ။ တဘက္ကေန ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးမယ္လို႔မွ်ားျပီး၊ (၂၀၀၉) ပြဲသိမ္းႏႊဲရင္ ခက္ကုန္မယ္။ ဒီေနရာမွာ ျပည္သူက သူတို႔လက္ကိုင္တုတ္ေတြကို ဘယ္မဲေပးမလဲလို႔ ဆိုစရာရွိတယ္။ ဟုတ္ပါတယ္။ ၉၀ ရလာဘ္ကို သူတို႔လဲ ျဖံဳေနဆဲပါ။ ဒါေပမယ့္ ၉၀ တုန္းကလို တရားမွ်တစြာ ထပ္က်င္းပျပီး၊ နအဖဟာ အရွံဳးဘြဲ႔ယူမွာ မဟုတ္ပါ။ ဆင္ၾကံၾကံမွာပါပဲ။
(၉) ဒီလိုေတြမျဖစ္ေအာင္ အခ်ိန္မွီ လုပ္စရာရွိတာ ဆက္လုပ္ၾကမွျဖစ္မယ္၊ လူထုတိုက္ပြဲလမ္းစဥ္မွတပါး တျခားမရွိပါ။ ေတြ႔ဆံုေနစဥ္ကာလမွာလဲ အတိုက္အခံအင္အားကို ဆက္ျပေနဖို႔ လိုမွာပါပဲ။ ျပည္သူလူထုၾကီး စုစုစည္းစည္းရပ္တည္ျပေနမွဳ လိုအပ္တာပါပဲ။
Your points are very good. Yes, we cannot sit idle and suscribe to "wait and see" approach. We must ratchet up the pressure on SPDC. Both inside and outside pressure/actions are needed now more than ever.
Ethnic problem is big issue for our country and also good execuse for military government to take over the power. That is why they breed them.
What do we need is to open communication channel to deal with those groups.???
Which organization? how?
SPDC clearly show which way they forward to. They will definitely start dialogue with ASSK as to ease international pressure. But they determine to go along with their 7 road map. If NLD do not agree their constitution, they will suspend the dialogue in the middle. Eventhough they are on dialogue, they strict NLD and activist as usual. So we all know the answer already.
What shall we do from outside? Find out the way to charge Than Shwe and his hardline generals. Can you find out the way how to do and what we can start now?
Post a Comment