Monday, 27 October 2008
အေမရိကန္၏အလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ၿပသနာႏွင္႔စီးပြားေရးအေၿခအေနတေစ႔တေစာင္း
-ၿမတ္စုိး-
စက္တင္ဘာလမွာအေမရိကန္ေကာ္ပုိေရးရွင္းၾကီးမ်ား၏အလုပ္အကုိင္မ်ားကုိအၾကီးအက်ယ္ဆက္လက္ေလွ်ာ႔
ခ်ေနမႈေၾကာင္႔အေမရိကန္ၿပည္သူေတြဟာအလုပ္အကုိင္ရွာေဖြမႈအခက္အခဲေပါင္းစုံးဒုကၡေတြဆက္လက္
ၾကံဳေတြ႔ေနရပါတယ္။၂၀၀၁ခုႏွစ္ေနာက္ပုိင္းကတည္းကစၿပီးဒါဟာအၾကီးမားဆုံးအလုပ္အကုိင္ေလွ်ာ႔ခ်ခဲ႔မႈ
ႏွင္႔အလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ႏွဳန္းအၿမင္႔မားဆုံးၿဖစ္ခဲ႔ရတာပါ။ေအာက္တုိဘာလမွာလည္းဆက္လက္တုိးပြားဖုိ႔ရွိေနပါတယ္။
အေမရိကန္သမၼတေဟာင္းေတြလက္ထပ္ကရွိခဲ႔တဲ႔အလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ႏွဳန္းေတြကုိေလ႔လာႏုိင္ေအာင္ေဖာ္ၿပေပးထားပါတယ္။
The highest unemployment rate under George Bush was 6.3% in June of 2003. The highest under Bill Clinton was 7.3% in January 1993. June of 1992 was George Bush the elder’s high, 7.8%. Reagan’s high was in the two months of Novermber and December 1982, 10.8%.
ဒါေပမဲ႔၂၀၀၈မွာၾကံဳေတြ႔ေနရတဲ႔အေမရိကန္ႏုိင္ငံမွာၿဖစ္ေပၚေနတဲ႔စီးပြားေရးၿပသနာဟာအလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ၿပသနာ
တခုထဲမဟုတ္ပါဘူး။၁၉၃၀ခုႏွစ္ကၿဖစ္ပြားခဲ႔တဲ႔စီးပြားေရးကပ္ဆုိးက်ေရာက္ခဲ႔တဲ႔အခ်ိန္လုိဒုကၡၿပသနာေပါင္း
မ်ားစြာရင္ဆုိင္ေနၾကရပါတယ္။အေမရိကန္ဗဟုိဘဏ္ဥကၠဌေဟာင္းႏွင္႔စီပြားေရးပညာရွင္ၾကီးအဲလန္ဂရင္း
စပင္းကဆုိဒီလုိၿဖစ္ရပ္မ်ိဳးဟာရာစုႏွစ္တခုမွာတခါၿဖစ္ပြားေလ႔ရွိတဲ႔စီးပြားေရးစူနာမီကပ္ဆုိးၾကီးလုိ႔ေတာင္
အေမရိကန္လႊတ္ေတာ္တြင္းၾကားနာမႈမွာေၿပာဆုိသြားပါတယ္။မွန္ပါတယ္။အစုိးရတြင္အၾကီးအက်ယ္
လုိေငြၿပေနမႈ၊ၿပည္နယ္ေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားမွာအလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ေတြပုိမုိမ်ားၿပားလာေနမႈ၊ေရနံေစ်းၾကီးၿမင္႔
ခဲ႔မႈေၾကာင္႔ကုန္ေစ်းႏွဳန္းေတြၾကီးၿမင္႔လာခဲ႔မႈ၊ဘဏ္လုပ္ငန္းေတြေဒ၀ါလီခံရၿပီး၊စီးပြားေရးဆုိင္ရာဘ႑ာေရး
ေငြေၾကးစံနစ္ၾကီးတခုလုံးႏွင္႔ေငြေၾကးေစ်းကြက္ေတြၿပိဳလွဲေနမႈ၊အေသးစားစီးပြားေရးလုပ္ငန္းရွင္ေတြကုိ
ေငြမေခ်းႏုိင္တာေၾကာင္႔အေသးစားစီးပြားေရးလုပ္ငန္းေတြရပ္စဲသြားခဲ႔မႈ၊အိမ္ပုိင္ဆုိင္သူေတြ
ဟာအလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ၿဖစ္ခဲ႔တာေၾကာင္႔အိမ္လခမေပးႏိုင္လုိ႔အိမ္ပုိင္ဆုိင္မႈဆုံးရွဳံးေနရသလုိ၊အိမ္ေစ်းႏွဳန္းဟာလည္း
က်ဆင္းေနမႈ၊ေမာ္ေတာ္ကားလုပ္ငန္းေတြ၊ခရီးသြားလုပ္ငန္း၊အစားအေသာက္လုပ္ငန္းစတဲ႔အလုပ္အကုိင္
တုိးမ်ားေစတဲ႔စီးပြားေရလုပ္ငန္းေတြစီးပြားေရးဆုံးရွဳံးခဲ႔ေနရမႈ၊ေတြဘဲၿဖစ္ပါတယ္။
အေမရိကန္အစုိးရအေနနဲ႔ဘ႑ာေရးေငြေၾကးစံနစ္ႏွင္႔အိမ္ရာေစ်းကြက္ေတြကုိအၾကီးအက်ယ္အားကန္
ေထာက္ပံ႔မႈေတြၿပဳလုပ္ေနေသာ္လည္း၊ၿပည္သူေတြဟာအလုပ္လက္မဲ႔ၿဖစ္ေနမႈေၾကာင္႔အိမ္ရာေစ်းကြက္ဟာ
ၿပန္လည္ေကာင္းမြန္လာမွာမဟုတ္ဘူးလုိ႔စီးပြားေရးပညာရွင္ေတြကသုံးသပ္ေနၾကပါတယ္။အိမ္ပုိင္ဆုိင္သူေတြ
ဟာအလုပ္မရွိတာေၾကာင္႔အိမ္လခဆက္လက္ေပးဖုိ႔ရန္မၿဖစ္ႏုိင္သလုိ၊အိမ္ယာေစ်းကြက္ဟာလည္းဆက္လက္ ၿပီးအခက္အခဲေတြရွိေနအုံးမွာပါ။ၿပည္သူေတြရဲ႕၀ယ္ယူသုံးစြဲမႈႏွင္႔ေစ်းကြက္ကုိယုံၾကည္မႈရွိေအာင္လုပ္ဖုိ႔ရာ
အေတာ္ေလးခက္ခဲေနအုံးမယ္လုိ႔ကြ်မ္းက်င္သူေတြကသုံးသပ္ေနၾကပါတယ္။
by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession
As if a housing crisis and global market meltdown aren't bad enough, layoffs are rising too: September was the worst month for "mass" layoffs since 2001, the WSJ reports.
And the hits just kept coming in October:
"In just the last two weeks, the list of companies announcing their intention to cut workers has read like a Who's Who of corporate America," the NY Times reports: "Merck, Yahoo, General Electric, Xerox, Pratt & Whitney, Goldman Sachs, Whirlpool, Bank of America, Alcoa, Coca-Cola, the Detroit automakers and nearly all the airlines."
The good news for investors is that stocks typically bottom long before the economy and unemployment turn a corner. The bad news is rising joblessness and its impact on the real economy -- most notably housing and consumer spending -- may just be getting started.
Economists are now debating how high unemployment will rise from its still relatively low 6.1%. Among the milestones currently being targeted:
* Recent peak of 6.3% in June 2003 (seems like a lock)
* Early 1990's recession peak of 7.8% (likely)
* Late 1982 recession peak of 10.8% (extreme, but not unthinkable)
* Great Depression 25% (unthinkable)
At this point the best hope for jobs growth appears to be a massive program of fiscal spending by the Federal government, regardless of who wins the election. That isn't what champions of free-market capitalism want to hear but their complaints are likely to fall on deaf ears as private corporations continue to shed jobs.
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at 15:52
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